Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have done extensive research on the spread of the novel coronavirus in different climates. Their paper, called “Will coronavirus pandemic diminish by summer?” summarizes their early findings. This work explores recent data which hints at a connection between humidity levels and the rates of contraction of the novel COVID-19 (referred to as 2019-nCoV in the paper) virus.
The authors note that countries with a warmer humid climate, such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, exhibit a lower growth rate in COVID-19 infections than countries such as Italy, Iran, or the United States. Their research found that 90% of the infections from the data that they analyzed occurred in areas between 37.4 and 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit with an absolute humidity of 4 to 9 grams per cubic meter.
Of course, many factors contribute to the spread of Covid-19. Their paper expands on these as well.
Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel: The Research
Bukhari works primarily in the intersection of neuroscience and engineering, but has a wide background in the sciences. Jameel works as a postdoc in the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at MIT.
The results of these researchers’ data show that “the number of 2019-nCoV cases between 0 and 30N latitude are several times lower than the number of cases between 30 and 50N.”
Some of the factors that could influence these results include limited access to testing, as well as overcrowding of hospitals such as in Italy and “human mobility” between certain countries. More effective measures in some areas may have a strong effect as well. For example, the “robust” healthcare system and rigorous quarantine measures put in place after the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan may influence these lower contraction rates, rather than the climate.
Of course, limited data means limited conclusions. Bukhari and Jameel could only crunch the numbers on data provided by WHO and other confirmed resources. Regardless, this paper marks an important step towards the development of an idea about how this virus functions. Newspapers such as The New York Times and The Washington Post have reported on this new data.
Bukhari and Jameel Advocate for “Effective Public Health Interventions”
The upshot of this data? While not conclusive, this kind of research greatly furthers scientific understanding of the virus, and may propose new methods of moving forwards.
What it signals is progress in research being conducted about COVID-19, which in itself is a fact more telling than the results themselves. Pandemics do not always follow the seasonal patterns that the pathogens typically align with, reports the BBC. For example, the Spanish Flu got significantly worse in the summer, although influenza typically thrives in colder weather.
The authors themselves warn against any premature conclusions being made from their paper.
“Our results in no way suggest that 2019 nCoV would not spread in warm humid regions and effective public health interventions should be implemented across the world to slow down the transmission of 2019-nCoV,” write Bukhari and Jameel. They add, “the dependence will become more clear as more data are analyzed subsequently.”
Recommended Measures to Slow Spread of COVID-19
Bukhari and Jameel recommend certain “effective” measures. These align with the measures recommended by health and government agencies all over the world.
They particularly recommend social distancing, which can be defined as “deliberately increasing the physical space between people to avoid spreading illness.” This means keeping a minimum of a six feet distance between oneself and the public – meaning people outside of one’s immediate circle of contacts. Avoid attending public places or events, and self-practice self-quarantining. These steps may seem difficult, but provide massive protection to oneself and one’s community.
Hand-washing also has critical importance. The CDC has a guide on when and how to do so most effectively. The CDC has also published a list of recommendations to keep yourself and your loved ones safe and healthy. It includes self-quarantine and social distancing guidelines, as well as methods to make effective household cleaning supplies, and more. A Harvard team has translated many of these recommendations into a number of languages to spread the information.
The paper can be found at this link, and can be downloaded for free as a PDF.
